Identifying influencers among a group of wireless-subscription subscribers

ABSTRACT

An embodiment of the invention is directed to retaining customers for a wireless-service provider (“carrier”). A ratio is calculated based on a number of incoming calls received by a mobile device and a number of outgoing calls originating from the mobile device. The ratio is also based on locations of callers that originated the incoming calls. The ratio is compared to an influencer threshold. When the ratio is greater than the influencer threshold, then a subscriber associated with the mobile device is indicated to be an influencer that potentially affects decisions of other subscribers regarding whether to cancel or maintain their subscriptions with the wireless service. An incentive is provided to the influencer to increase the likelihood that the influencer will retain a subscription with the wireless service, thereby increasing the likelihood that other subscribers who might be influenced by the influencer will retain their respective subscriptions.

CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS

This application is a continuation of U.S. application Ser. No.12/389,470, filed Feb. 20, 2009, entitled “Identifying Influencers AmongA Group Of Wireless-Subscription Subscribers,”, the entirety of which isincorporated by reference herein.

SUMMARY

Embodiments of the invention are defined by the claims below, not thissummary. A high-level overview of various aspects of the invention isprovided here for that reason, to provide an overview of the disclosureand to introduce a selection of concepts that are further describedbelow. This summary is not intended to identify key features oressential features of the claimed subject matter, nor is it intended tobe used as an aid in isolation to determine the scope of the claimedsubject matter.

An embodiment of the present invention is related to retaining customersfor a wireless-service provider (“carrier”). A ratio is calculated basedon a number of incoming calls received by a mobile device and a numberof outgoing calls originating from the mobile device. The ratio is alsobased on locations of callers that originated the incoming calls. Theratio is compared to an influencer threshold. When the ratio is greaterthan the influencer threshold, then a subscriber associated with themobile device is indicated to be an influencer that potentially affectsdecisions of other subscribers regarding whether to cancel or maintaintheir subscriptions with the wireless service. An incentive is providedto the influencer to increase the likelihood that the influencer willretain a subscription with the wireless service, thereby increasing thelikelihood that other subscribers who might be influenced by theinfluencer will retain their respective subscriptions.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

Illustrative embodiments of the present invention are described indetail below with reference to the attached drawing figures, andwherein:

FIG. 1 depicts a block diagram of an exemplary computing environmentsuitable for implementing an embodiment of the invention;

FIG. 2 depicts a block diagram of an exemplary network environmentsuitable for implementing an embodiment of the invention;

FIG. 3 depicts a block diagram of an exemplary social network ofsubscribers, in accordance with an embodiment of the invention;

FIG. 4 depicts a block diagram of factors that can contribute to aninfluencer ratio, in accordance with an embodiment of the invention;

FIG. 5 is a flow diagram showing a method of determining an influencer,in accordance with an embodiment of the invention;

FIG. 6 is a flow diagram showing a method of determining an influencer,in accordance with an embodiment of the invention; and

FIG. 7 is a flow diagram showing a method of retaining customers, inaccordance with an embodiment of the invention.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

The subject matter of embodiments of the present invention is describedwith specificity herein to meet statutory requirements. But thedescription itself is not intended to necessarily limit the scope of theclaims. Rather, the claimed subject matter might be embodied in otherways to include different steps or combinations of steps similar to theones described in this document, in conjunction with other present orfuture technologies. Terms should not be interpreted as implying anyparticular order among or between various steps herein disclosed unlessand except when the order of individual steps is explicitly described.

Embodiments of the present invention are directed to, among otherthings, a method of identifying wireless-service subscribers(“subscribers”) that are likely to leave a particular service provideror carrier that is providing the wireless services that the subscribersare using. Churners are subscribers that leave their wireless-serviceprovider. Subscribers can be called wireless-service users and typicallyhave a mobile computing device associated with them, which they use toaccess the services to which they subscribe.

Subscribers that churn may cause other subscribers to churn. Socialconnections between subscribers could increase the likelihood that thesubscribers could churn together. These social relationships betweensubscribers could be characterized in terms of data derived from logs ofactivity for a particular subscriber's mobile computing device in anumber of ways. For example, the number of calls a subscriber receivesfrom a second subscribers could indicate the strength of a socialrelationship between the two.

According to an embodiment of the invention, influencers are subscriberswho have potentially strong social bonds over many other subscribers.For example, a parent with a number of children would have stronginfluence over the choice of a wireless-service provider for the entirefamily. If the parent churns, the rest of the family will, with highprobability, churn. Those subscribers with many unique subscriberscalling them may also have influence over a large number of users. Forexample, many service providers offer incentives for all members ofgroups of friends to utilize the same service provider, by offering freemobile-to-mobile calling between mobile computing devices using the sameservice provider. If a single subscriber with a large group of othersubscribers as friends could be prevented from churning, it is possiblethat the entire social group so defined could be maintained at theservice provider.

A number of metrics could be used to identify influencers. For example,a ratio of the number of calls received to the number of calls initiated(i.e., incoming to outgoing calls) could be used to identifyinfluencers. Subscribers that have a large number of other subscriberscalling them are likely to have a large range of influence.Additionally, other data transfers could be used to identifyinfluencers. For example, email messages, text messages, instantmessages, and picture/multimedia messages could be used to identifyinfluencers. Average call length could also be used to identify aninfluencer. For example, a subscriber with a large amount of incomingcalls, all of which are short, could be a strong influencer, or aninfluencer with a large number of other subscribers who are under theirinfluence. In this case, it could be said that the influence of thesubscriber is inversely proportional to the average call length. As afurther factor, geographic proximity of the subscriber with the othersubscribers could be a factor. If the subscriber in question isgeographically near to all the various other subscribers that make upthe incoming calls, that subscriber may be said to be a stronginfluencer. Finally, if a subscriber has connections with many othersubscribers who themselves are influencers, this may indicate that theyare a strong influencer.

According to an embodiment of the invention, a metric could be created,based on some combination of the metrics previously described. Thismetric could be evaluated for each of the subscribers of a particularwireless-service provider. A threshold could be set, wherein anysubscriber with a metric that evaluates to higher than the thresholdcould be labeled an influencer. These influencers could then be targetedwith incentives. Incentives could be any mechanism by which a serviceprovider attempts to convince a subscriber not to churn. By way ofexample, an incentive could be an offer for a discount on a new mobilecomputing device. As another example, an incentive could be an offer ofan amount of free service. As a further example, an incentive couldinvolve passing the subscribers information to a marketing department ora retention department to provide some further incentive.

An embodiment of the invention is directed to retaining customers for awireless-service provider (“carrier”). A plurality of users who areinfluencers are identified from a group of wireless-service subscribers,wherein an influencer is a user who is likely to affect decisions ofother users regarding whether to cancel or maintain their subscriptionswith a particular carrier based on whether the influencer cancels ormaintains his or her subscription. The identification is accomplished bya process that includes: determining an incoming-call count by countingthe number of incoming calls received by a particular subscriber;determining an outgoing-call count by counting the number of callsoriginating from the particular subscriber; calculating a ratio based onthe incoming-call count and the outgoing-call count; comparing the ratioto an influencer threshold; and indicating that the subscriber is aninfluencer when the ratio is greater than the influencer threshold. Alist of influencers is thereby created. An incentive to provide the listof identified influencers is determined. The incentive increases thelikelihood that the set of influencers will retain their respectivesubscriptions, thereby increasing the likelihood that other subscriberswho might be influenced will also retain their respective subscriptions.

Another embodiment of the invention is directed to retaining customersof a wireless-service provider. A group of wireless-service subscribers(“subscribers”) that are influencers are identified by a particularprocess. The process includes: identifying a plurality of subscribers;calculating a ratio of incoming connections to outgoing connections foreach of the subscribers; comparing the ratio for each of the pluralityof subscribers to an influencer threshold; and determining a list ofinfluencers, the list containing the subscribers with ratios greaterthan the influencer threshold. One or more incentives are determined toincrease the likelihood that the influencers will not churn.

A further embodiment of the invention is directed to retaining customersof a wireless-service provider. A list of influencers is determined froma group of subscribers. The list of influencers is determined by aprocess including: determining a number of incoming connections,including calls, text messages, and picture messages; determining annumber of outgoing connections, including calls, text messages, andpicture messages; calculating a ratio of incoming connections tooutgoing connections, the ratio including a factor based on the averagelength of calls; comparing the ratio to an influencer threshold; andgenerating a set of influencers, the set including those subscriberswith ratios greater than the influencer threshold. The set ofinfluencers is presented. The presentation could, for example, be on aprinted sheet to a marketing division of the wireless-service provider.

Embodiments of the present invention may be embodied as, among otherthings: a method, system, or set of instructions embodied on one or morecomputer-readable media. Computer-readable media include both volatileand nonvolatile media, removable and nonremovable media, andcontemplates media readable by a database, a switch, and various othernetwork devices. By way of example, and not limitation,computer-readable media include media implemented in any method ortechnology for storing information. Examples of stored informationinclude computer-useable instructions, data structures, program modules,and other data representations. Media examples include, but are notlimited to, information-delivery media, RAM, ROM, EEPROM, flash memoryor other memory technology, CD-ROM, digital versatile discs (DVD),holographic media or other optical disc storage, magnetic cassettes,magnetic tape, magnetic disk storage, and other magnetic storagedevices. These technologies can store data momentarily, temporarily, orpermanently.

Having briefly described an overview of embodiments of the presentinvention, an exemplary operating environment in which embodiments ofthe present invention may be implemented is described below in order toprovide a general context for various aspects of the present invention.Referring initially to FIG. 1 in particular, an exemplary operatingenvironment for implementing embodiments of the present invention isshown and designated generally as computing device 100. Computing device100 is but one example of a suitable computing environment and is notintended to suggest any limitation as to the scope of use orfunctionality of the invention. Neither should the computing device 100be interpreted as having any dependency or requirement relating to anyone or combination of components illustrated.

The invention may be practiced in a variety of system configurations,including handheld devices, consumer electronics, general-purposecomputers, more specialty computing devices, etc. The invention may alsobe practiced in distributed computing environments where tasks areperformed by remote-processing devices that are linked through acommunications network.

With reference to FIG. 1, computing device 100 includes a bus 110 thatdirectly or indirectly couples the following devices: memory 112, one ormore processors 114, one or more presentation components 116,input/output (I/O) ports 118, I/O components 120, and an illustrativepower supply 122. Bus 110 represents what may be one or more busses(such as an address bus, data bus, or combination thereof). Although thevarious blocks of FIG. 1 are shown with lines for the sake of clarity,in reality, delineating various components is not so clear, andmetaphorically, the lines would more accurately be grey and fuzzy. Forexample, many processors have memory. We recognize that such is thenature of the art and reiterate that the diagram of FIG. 1 is merelyillustrative of an exemplary computing device that can be used inconnection with one or more embodiments of the invention. Distinction isnot made between such categories as “workstation,” “server,” “laptop,”“handheld device,” etc., as all are contemplated within the scope ofFIG. 1 and reference to “computing device.”

Computing device 100 typically includes a variety of computer-readablemedia. Computer-readable media can be any available media that can beaccessed by computing device 100 and include both volatile andnonvolatile media, removable and nonremovable media. By way of example,and not limitation, computer-readable media may include computer storagemedia and communication media. Computer storage media include bothvolatile and nonvolatile, removable and nonremovable media implementedin any method or technology for storage of information such ascomputer-readable instructions, data structures, program modules, orother data. Computer storage media include, but are not limited to,Random-Access Memory (RAM), Read-Only Memory (ROM),Electrically-Erasable, Programmable, Read-Only Memory (EEPROM), flashmemory or other memory technology, Compact Disk, Read-Only Memory(CD-ROM), digital versatile disks (DVD) or other optical disk storage,magnetic cassettes, magnetic tape, magnetic disk storage or othermagnetic storage devices, or any other medium which can be used to storethe desired information and which can be accessed by computing device100.

Memory 112 includes computer-storage media in the form of volatilememory. Exemplary hardware devices include solid-state memory, such asRAM. Memory 112 includes computer-storage media in the form ofnonvolatile memory. The memory 112 may be removable, nonremovable, or acombination thereof. Exemplary hardware devices include solid-statememory, hard drives, optical-disc drives, etc. Computing device 100includes one or more processors 114 that read data from various entitiessuch as memory 112 or I/O components 120. I/O components 120 presentdata indications to a user or other device. Exemplary output componentsinclude a display device, speaker, printing component, vibratingcomponent, etc.

I/O ports 118 allow computing device 100 to be logically coupled toother devices including I/O components 120, some of which may be builtin. Illustrative components include a microphone, joystick, game pad,satellite dish, scanner, printer, wireless device, etc.

Turning now to FIG. 2, a diagram depicting a network environmentsuitable for implementing the present invention is given. A base station202 provides a point of connection to a network 201 for a number ofmobile computing devices 203, 204. Such mobile computing devices 203,204 can be any computing device with the ability to connect to thenetwork via a base station 202. For example, many personal digitalassistants (PDAs), mobile phones, and laptop computers have wirelessnetworking interfaces through which they can connect to a base station202.

There are a number of possible wireless technologies suitable forconnecting a mobile computing device, such as mobile computing devices203 and 204, to a base station 202. By way of example, third-generationcellular technologies, such as Code Division Multiple Access—EVolutionData/Voice (CDMA-EVDO) could be used to connect a mobile device 203 to abase station 202. IEEE 802.11 wireless links could also be used toconnect a mobile computing device 203 to a base station 202.

Base station 202 can provide a point of connection to a network 201 viaa wired or a wireless link, which may be called a backhaul link. Thenetwork 201 could be a private intranet, or a wide-area network such asthe Internet. Other computing devices connected to the network 201 cancommunicate with a mobile computing device 203 connected to the network201 via a base station 202 by way of the base station 202.

Referring to FIG. 3, a social diagram of wireless-service subscribers isgiven. Users can attach their mobile computing devices to a networkthrough the use of a group of base stations provided by anetwork-service provider, or carrier. Such network-service providers maycharge a fee for users to utilize base stations for access to thenetwork. These users are subscribers, subscribing to the network-accessservice provided by the network-service providers.

Some subscribers could have influence over other subscribers withrespect to decisions on whether to maintain a subscription to aparticular wireless-service provider or to cancel that subscription.Subscribers that influence more than some fixed number of othersubscribers could be considered influencers 309. Subscribers that areinfluenced by others can be called feeders 301, 302, 303, 304. Feedersmay have limited or no influence on other subscribers. By way ofexample, in a single family, the parents may be considered influencers309 and the children may be considered feeders 301, 302, 303, 304.

In addition to feeders 301, 302, 303, 304, and influencers 309, therecan be a number of influencers who are themselves feeders to some othersubscriber, called feeder hosts 305, 306, 307, 308. By way of the familyexample, the influencer 309 could be a grandparent, the feeder hosts305, 306, 307, 308 could be the parents, who are children of thegrandparent, and the feeders 301, 302, 303, 304 could be the children.In this case, the children would be likely to use the wireless-serviceprovider of the parents, and the parents would be likely to use thewireless-service provider of the grandparent.

If a wireless-service provider could identify such influencers 309, andtarget them with incentives, the wireless-service provider couldpotentially increase the likelihood that a large amount of subscriberswill not cancel their subscription (i.e., will not churn) using only asingle incentive to a single subscriber.

Turning now to FIG. 4, a number of metrics can be used to identify asubscriber as an influencer. In order to identify a subscriber as aninfluencer, a number of statistics about that subscriber's communicationpatterns can be collected and combined into a metric. By way of example,an influencer could be defined as any subscriber with a ratio 401 ofincoming calls 402 to outgoing calls 403 that is greater than somethreshold. Such a threshold could be called an influencer threshold andcould be chosen experimentally. If the influencer threshold is set to alarge number, then it is likely that the influencers thereby identifiedwill be likely to, in fact, influence other nodes; however, someinfluencers may not be identified. If the influencer threshold is set toa low number, then more subscribers will be identified as influencers;however, some of the identified influencers may in fact have noinfluence on other subscribers.

A number of factors or metrics can be included in such a ratio 401 andsuch an influencer threshold. For example, the number of incoming textmessages 404 and the number of outgoing text messages 405 could beincluded in the ratio 401. The number of incoming picture and multimediamessages 406 and the number of outgoing picture and multimedia message407 could be included in the ratio 401. Many mobile computing deviceshave the ability to transfer various multimedia files in message form,including picture messages, video messages, audio messages, and variouscombinations, all of which can be broadly considered multimediamessages.

The average call duration 408 could be considered as a factor indetermining the ratio 401. By way of example, the ratio could be definedas inversely proportional to the average call duration. Many short,incoming calls could be an indication that a subscriber has a widerrange of influence than a subscriber with fewer, long calls. Location409 could also be a factor in determining the ratio 401. For example, ifa subscriber has many incoming calls, but all of them are fromsubscribers from a different region, they may be less likely toinfluence those subscribers.

In addition to metrics having to do with call statistics of a particularsubscriber, statistics related to the subscribers connected to thesubscriber for whom the ratio is being calculated could be used. Forexample, if all of the incoming calls to a particular subscriber arefrom subscribers who are themselves influencers, this may indicate thatthe subscriber is an influencer.

Turning now to FIG. 5, a flow diagram depicting a method 500 ofdetermining a subscriber is an influencer is given. A number of incomingcalls is determined, as shown at block 501 and a number of outgoingcalls is determined, as shown at block 502. The number of incoming callsand the number of outgoing calls could be counted from a call logassociated with a particular subscriber. These counts could be performedusing a number of different lengths of call logs. By way of example, amonthly call log could be used to determine the number of incoming callsand the number of outgoing calls. As another example, a quarterly logcould be used to determine the number of incoming calls and the numberof outgoing calls for a particular subscriber.

A ratio is determined for the subscriber, as shown at block 503. Asdiscussed with respect to FIG. 4, a number of factors could be used indetermining the ratio. By way of example, the incoming and outgoing callcounts could be used. Additionally, the average call length and locationof callers could be used in determining the ratio. Many other metricscould be used in calculating the metric. The ratio can be compared to aninfluencer threshold, as shown at block 504. The influencer thresholdcould be determined experimentally. The influencer threshold could alsobe determined through the use of a model, which models the behavior ofsubscribers who churn based on a number of metrics such as thosedescribed with respect to FIG. 4. If the ratio is greater than theinfluencer threshold, then the subscriber is labeled an influencer, asshown at block 506. If the ratio is not greater than the influencerthreshold, then the subscriber is not labeled an influencer, as shown atblock 507.

Turning now to FIG. 6, a flow diagram depicting a method 600 ofdetermining a mobile computing device is an influencer is given. Anumber of mobile computing devices are identified, each associated witha subscriber, as shown at block 601. The group of mobile computingdevices could be the group of all mobile computing devices within aparticular service area serviced by a particular wireless-serviceprovider. The identification of mobile computing devices associated withsubscribers can facilitate the acquisition of data used to calculateratios for each subscriber. For example, call logs could be associatedwith particular mobile computing devices.

A ratio is determined for each of the subscribers associated with eachof the mobile computing devices, as shown at block 602. These ratioscould include a number of different metrics, such as those discussedwith respect to FIG. 4. The ratios are compared to an influencerthreshold, as shown at block 603. A list of influencers can be builtbased on the comparison of the ratios related to each subscriber and theinfluencer threshold, as shown at block 604. For example, any subscriberwith a ratio greater than the influencer threshold could be added to thelist of influencers.

Turning now to FIG. 7, a flow diagram depicting a method 700 ofretaining customers is given. One or more influencers are identified, asshown at block 701. The methods depicted in FIG. 5 and FIG. 6 areexamples of suitable methods for identifying influencers. Theinfluencers are presented, as shown at block 702. By way of example, theinfluencers could be presented to a marketing department. As anotherexample, the influencers could be presented via a printed medium. One ormore incentives are determined to increase the likelihood that theinfluencers that have been determined in block 701 will maintain theirsubscriptions with the wireless-service provider, as shown at block 703.Such incentives could be in the form of free services. Another exampleof an incentive could be the offer of a new mobile computing device.

Many different arrangements of the various components depicted, as wellas components not shown, are possible without departing from the scopeof the claims below. Embodiments of our technology have been describedwith the intent to be illustrative rather than restrictive. Alternativeembodiments will become apparent to readers of this disclosure after andbecause of reading it. Alternative means of implementing theaforementioned can be completed without departing from the scope of theclaims below. Certain features and subcombinations are of utility andmay be employed without reference to other features and subcombinationsand are contemplated within the scope of the claims.

The invention claimed is:
 1. One or more nontransitory computer-readablemedia having computer-executable instructions embodied thereon that,when executed by a computing device, facilitate a method of retainingsubscribers of a wireless service, the method comprising: calculating aratio based on a number of incoming calls from subscribers received by amobile device and a number of outgoing calls to subscribers originatingfrom the mobile device, wherein the ratio is also based on locations ofsubscribers that originated the incoming calls; comparing the ratio toan influencer threshold; when the ratio is greater than the influencerthreshold, then indicating that a subscriber associated with the mobiledevice is an influencer that potentially affects decisions of othersubscribers regarding whether to cancel or maintain their subscriptionswith the wireless service; and providing an incentive to the influencerto increase a likelihood that the influencer will retain a subscriptionwith the wireless service, thereby increasing a likelihood that othersubscribers who might be influenced by the influencer will retain theirrespective subscriptions.
 2. The nontransitory computer-readable mediaof claim 1, wherein the number of incoming calls received by the mobiledevice is determined from a call log.
 3. The nontransitorycomputer-readable media of claim 1, wherein the number of outgoing callsoriginating from the mobile device is determined from a call log.
 4. Thenontransitory computer-readable media of claim 1, wherein calculatingthe ratio comprises including in the ratio a number of incoming textmessages and a number of outgoing text messages.
 5. The nontransitorycomputer-readable media of claim 1, wherein calculating the ratiocomprises including in the ratio a number of incoming picture messagesand a number of outgoing picture messages.
 6. The nontransitorycomputer-readable media of claim 1, wherein calculating the ratiocomprises including a factor based on an average call length.
 7. Thenontransitory computer-readable media of claim 6, wherein the factorbased on the average call length is inversely proportional to theaverage call length.
 8. The nontransitory computer-readable media ofclaim 1, wherein calculating the ratio comprises including a factorbased on an outgoing-call count to mobile computing devices ofsubscribers labeled as influencers and an incoming-call count frommobile computing devices of subscribers labeled as influencers.
 9. Thenontransitory computer-readable media of claim 1, wherein indicatingthat the subscriber is an influencer includes labeling the subscriber aninfluencer in a list of subscribers.
 10. The nontransitorycomputer-readable media of claim 1, wherein the influencer threshold isdetermined experimentally.
 11. The nontransitory computer-readable mediaof claim 1, wherein the influencer threshold is determined from a modelthat models behavior of subscribers.
 12. The nontransitorycomputer-readable media of claim 1, wherein the ratio is also based ongeographic proximity of the subscriber with the other subscribers. 13.The media of claim 1, wherein the calculating, the comparing, and theindicating are performed for a plurality of mobile devices to determinea set of influencers that potentially affect decisions of othersubscribers regarding whether to cancel or maintain their subscriptionswith the wireless service.